2024 Morgan Stanley Swiss Watch Industry Report: Market Trends and Key Insights

The 2024 Morgan Stanley Swiss Watch Industry Report, produced in collaboration with LuxeConsult, provides a detailed analysis of the Swiss watch market’s performance. Following record-breaking years in 2022 and 2023, the industry faced a 3% decline in exports in 2024. Economic uncertainties, shifting consumer demand, and geopolitical challenges contributed to the slowdown. Despite the contraction, the luxury segment—particularly watches priced above CHF 50,000—continued to grow, accounting for 33.5% of the industry’s total value and 84% of market growth.

Market Overview

The report highlights a stark polarization: leading luxury brands have maintained or increased their market share, while mid-tier and entry-level brands faced significant challenges. The top 50 Swiss watch brands collectively saw their turnover drop from CHF 36.1 billion in 2023 to CHF 35.3 billion in 2024, with unit sales decreasing from 16 million to just over 13 million. This decline in volume alongside stable or rising revenues indicates a notable increase in average watch prices.

Rolex’s Dominance and the “Big Four”Unsurprisingly, Rolex remains the industry leader, achieving an estimated turnover exceeding CHF 10.5 billion, up CHF 500 million from 2023. The brand alone commands 32% of the market, underscoring its unparalleled position in the luxury sector. Together with Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille, the so-called “Big Four” accounted for 47% of the Swiss watch market—a substantial increase from 36.8% in 2019. This consolidation highlights the growing dominance of top-tier independent brands, which continue to outperform their group-owned counterparts.

Performance by Watch Groups

The report sheds light on the varying fortunes of major watch conglomerates:

• Swatch Group: Suffered a 14.6% drop in sales, reflecting the challenges facing mid-range brands like Tissot and Longines.

• Richemont: While experiencing overall market pressure, brands like Cartier, Bulgari, and Van Cleef & Arpels gained market share.

• LVMH: Positioned fifth, with a market share just under 6%, its watch division faced mixed results amid broader luxury market fluctuations.

• Independent Brands: Beyond the Big Four, independents like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie, and MB&F continued their upward trajectory, benefiting from increased consumer interest in niche, high-end craftsmanship.

Key Market Trends

• Rising Average Prices: Despite lower unit sales, the surge in demand for high-end pieces has driven average watch prices higher.

• Luxury Segment Growth: Watches over CHF 50,000 now dominate market growth, reflecting strong demand among affluent buyers.

• Market Concentration: Four groups (Rolex, Swatch, Richemont, and Patek Philippe) now control over 75% of industry sales, intensifying competition for smaller brands.

• Geographical Impact: Sales slowed in key regions like the US, Europe, and China, with macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influencing consumer confidence.

Looking Ahead to 2025

While 2024 was marked by contraction, the report notes cautious optimism for 2025. Brands focusing on innovation, sustainability, and direct-to-consumer strategies are expected to navigate the challenging environment more successfully. However, with ongoing economic uncertainty, the market’s path to recovery remains closely tied to global consumer sentiment.

Final ThoughtsThe 2024 Morgan Stanley Swiss Watch Industry Report underscores a pivotal moment for the Swiss watch sector. With market leaders consolidating power and high-end segments thriving, mid-tier brands face pressure to adapt. For consumers and industry watchers, the findings highlight the enduring appeal of heritage brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe while showcasing the resilience of independent players.

Where to Access the Full Report:

• Visit the official websites of Morgan Stanley or LuxeConsult for more details.

• For summarized insights, refer to the Monochrome Watches article.